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All predictions are based on trend analysis: What countries or companies are researching, or working on at the time. But we should always remember for the future is not the end of the trend line. Why? Well, to begin with, we made the mistake of writing histories of technology based on innovation and not use. In reality all technologies work perfectly well, which is why they persist for a long time. The scientist David Gelernter has coined what he calls a ‘Law of Replacement’ – “a society replaces a thing when it finds something better, not when it finds something newer”. Read more

Directeur du Creéia, professeur à l'ILERI.

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